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WIDA Investment Analysis # 1

The State of Global FDI and Potential Areas for Collaboration

This investment analysis article was jointly developed by founding organizations for the launch of the World Investment for Development Alliance (WIDA), in Davos, on 23 May 2022. [1]

These points are not aimed to be definitive or comprehensive, but rather to stimulate further discussion, and potential action.

Introduction

At the launch of the World Investment for Development Alliance (WIDA), this note aims to briefly present the state of global foreign direct investment (FDI) and its challenges, and outline ideas on potential areas of action.

Background

FDI recovered strongly in 2021 after a major plunge in 2020, when flows slumped due to the lockdowns and shocks associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the recovery has been highly uneven, with flows to developed countries recovering rapidly while those to developing countries, and particularly Least Developed Countries (LDCs), witnessed a slow recovery marked by growing internal disparities. [2] Furthermore, much of the rebound in global FDI came from reinvested earnings, with equity flows – often seen as a better measure of new investments – still 3% below pre-pandemic levels. [3]

Investments that are taking place are not sufficiently going to projects that can help advance sustainable development. Greenfield investment in industry and new infrastructure investment projects in developing countries were hit particularly hard during the pandemic. This is a major concern, because international investment flows are vital for sustainable development in the poorer regions of the world. [4] Policy-makers in these countries face public budgetary constraints coupled with debt ceilings on one side and narrow capital markets on the other, which makes it especially challenging for them to advance sustainable infrastructure. [5]

The war in Ukraine and further COVID-19 lockdowns in China will likely create headwinds to the rebound in FDI flows that began in 2021. The global rise in fuel prices may reverse the sharp increase recently seen in FDI in renewables as a share of total energy sector FDI, as fossil fuels stage a short-term recovery. As a result of these challenging global conditions, global FDI flows will probably continue to remain well below their peak in 2007, as calculated as a share of global GDP.

Such challenges, together with a still uneven global vaccination roll-out, fractured supply chains and lack of consistent policies to stimulate private investment may continue to hamper recovery in developing countries. [6] This is aggravated by the limited diffusion of new technologies and digitalization. The top 100 digital multinational enterprises (MNEs) remain highly concentrated geographically. Although several of the new entrants in this ranking have their headquarters in developing countries, the list is still dominated by firms from developed economies, mostly from the United States (59) and Europe (22). [7] Only a few digital MNEs from Southeast Asia and Latin America are gaining global prominence.

 

Looking forward – Ideas for future action

Fully understanding and addressing the causes of the secular decline in FDI flows and the link between international investment and sustainable development are key challenges for policymakers, not least investment promotion agencies (IPAs). This calls for better understanding of potential actions to help address these challenges, categorized by WIDA as follows to organize collaboration on investment policy and practice.

These points are not aimed to be definitive or comprehensive, but rather to stimulate further discussion, and potential action:

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Sources
  1. This article presents a collective effort of the staff of WIDA organizations. It does not represent the official position of the individual member organizations, nor implies any legal effect on the rights and obligations of the members states of those organizations.
  2. Global Investment Trend Monitor n. 40, January 2022, UNCTAD.
  3. FDI in Figures, April 2022, OECD.
  4. World Investment Report 2021: INVESTING IN SUSTAINABLE RECOVERY, April 2021, UNCTAD.
  5. Credit Enhancement for Sustainable Infrastructure, October 2018, IISD.
  6. World Bank Group Annual Report 2021: From crisis to green, resilient and inclusive recovery, October 2021, WBG.
  7. Global Investment Trends Monitor, n. 41, April 2022, UNCTAD.
  8. WAIPA-World Bank Global Survey on the State of Investment Promotion Agencies, 2020, WAIPA and WBG.
  9. The African Continental Free Trade Area, 2018, African Union.
  10. FDI effects on the labor market of host countries, September 2016, FED; and Labor Markets and the Demand for Foreign Direct Investment, Cambridge University Press, 2010.
  11. Foreign Direct Investment and Women Empowerment: New Evidence on Developing Countries, January 2018, IMF; and
  12. Gender spillovers in foreign direct investments: An analysis of Namibia, May 2022, Thunderbird International Business Review.
  13. FDI Qualities Indicators, October 2019, OECD.
  14. Global Investment Trends Monitor, n. 41, April 2022, UNCTAD.
  15. Digital FDI Policies, regulations and measures to attract FDI in the digital economy, September 2020, WEF.